[Salon] Commentary on Anatol Lieven's "Ukrainian neutrality: golden bridge out of a current geopolitical trap



FM: John Whitbeck

In response to my first message yesterday, one of my distinguished recipients, a journalist of renown, forwarded it to a "onetime colleague", who responded. I then responded to this response.

This correspondence is transmitted below (with names redacted).

A FURTHER THOUGHT: What is there not to like about neutrality? Everyone should dream of living in a country like Austria, Finland of Switzerland, legally exempt for any involvement in the costly (in lives and treasure) competitions and confrontations between the power-obsessed crazies who have always infested our world and free to focus a country's attention and resources on improving the quality of life for its people.

PRIOR THOUGHTS WORTH REPEATING: I am not aware of anyone, even an inveterate Russophobe, publicly suggesting that Russian-majority Crimea would have been reintegrated into the Russian Federation and the Russian-majority portions of the Donbas would have fought for and achieved separation from Ukraine and effective self-government if the Western-organized anti-Russian coup in Kiev had not occurred in 2014 and if the new Ukrainian regime installed by U.S Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Victoria Nuland ("Yats is the guy. ... F**k the EU.") had not, as one of its first acts, eliminated Russian as one of the country's two official languages.

At the time of the coup, Putin was fully occupied in attending the Winter Olympics in Sochi and hoping to justify the enormous amounts of money spent on staging this two-week extravaganza. He reacted quickly -- but he reacted. He did not plot. The five-step process for reintegrating Crimea into the Russian Federation (referendum/declaration of independence/diplomatic recognition by Russia/application for reintegration/acceptance of application) was bloodless and accomplished without the entry into Crimea of any Russian military forces in addition to those already stationed there with the accord of the Ukrainian government. In light of the International Court of Justice's 2010 opinion in the case regarding Kosovo's unilateral declaration of independence, the reintegration of Crimea into the Russian Federation did not violate international (as opposed to Ukrainian) law. No uniformed Russian military personnel entered the Donbas to support the secessionist struggle. (It is even possible that most or all of the on-leave "volunteers" who were permitted or encouraged to cross the border to offer support were genuine volunteers.)

It follows that the highly hyped assumption that President Putin is possessed by some pathological compulsion to commit the crime of aggression and is deviously plotting a "further invasion" of Ukraine or even an invasion of the Baltic States or Poland is ludicrous, founded simply on ignorance rooted in disinformation and brainwashing or on conscious and cynical bad faith. A clear-eyed appreciation of reality is essential if a thoroughly avoidable catastrophe is to be avoided.

Fortunately, thanks to President Putin's public release of his two proposed mutual security treaties and President Biden's prompt and non-dismissive response, there is now some hope that reality will get a fair hearing and greater understanding before it is too late.

NOTE: If President Biden was looking for a way to outrage President Putin even before entering the White House, he could not have found a better way to do so than naming Victoria Nuland as his Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs, the third highest position in the State Department.


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